2021年1月28日
By 标记物后 SymphonyAI Media首席执行官
博客

大数据如何拯救大屏幕

Major motion picture audiences have long been shifting from the big screen to the small screen. 首页 entertainment grew 24% worldwide in 2019, while box office sales crept up only 1%, 根据美国电影协会的说法.

仍然, 影院, 与电影制片厂合作, have been largely successful in enforcing the exclusive theatrical release windows that underpin the industry's revenue model. Even as digital streaming cannibalizes legacy revenue streams in segments like music 和 television, 电影业继续把赌注押在票房上. 剧院场次是数十亿美元制作预算的基础, 大片, 还有人才合同.

COVID-19大流行突然颠覆了这种模式. 票房收入跌至谷底最低点在2020年的40多年里，由于卫生限制，观影者只能待在家里. 电影公司正在匆忙地重塑发行模式, 几乎没有历史数据和先例来指导他们的策略. 影院只能在短期内筹集资金并削减成本.

Film distribution will be never be the same—和 neither should studio revenue strategies. The disruption of 2020 presents an opportunity for the motion picture industry to seize on, 而不是抗拒, 数字转换. 那些最快接受数据驱动的公司, predictive decision-making will survive 和 thrive in the uncertainty that looms over 2021 和 beyond.

三个策略，一个问题

随着票房的下降, studios are experimenting with three primary models to compensate: adjusted theatrical release windows (shortened or 延迟 altogether), 虚拟影院发行, 同时释放.

2020年圣诞节，华纳兄弟. 创造了历史，同时在剧院和直接流媒体发行 神奇女侠1984. The film debuted exclusively on the HBO Max SVOD platform the same day it hit 影院. 而票房收入低于 HBO Max斥资8600万美元买下了这部剧的首映式 subscribership增长去年12月，人们对这部电影的期待超过了400%. (当月早些时候，HBO 宣布计划在影院和HBO Max同时发布其2021年的所有电影.)

迪士尼还测试了同步发行的游戏，包括 《原始人:新时代 和灵魂,但延迟发行摇钱树专营权 《阿凡达》 和 星球大战除其他外. 利用迪士尼+流媒体平台, Disney also experimented with bypassing theatrical runs altogether; the PVOD release of 巨魔世界巡演 产生的利润大致相等预测剧院门票销售.

成败参半, 和 studio executives are wondering: Which strategy has the best chance of recovering box office losses?

从数据开始

没有什么神奇的公式. 但是发行窗口收益流的多样化, 包括直接面向消费者和同步模式的不可避免的崛起, can confer considerable advantages to studios that capitalize on the wealth of digital data now available.

Traditionally, theatrical ticket sales drove home entertainment distribution deal terms. Strong sales—particularly on opening weekends—increased studios' leverage in licensing negotiations with VOD platforms 和 other digital distributors. 但时机的选择迫使他们进行了一场赌博:等到票房数据出来的时候, 制作预算已经花完了，人才合同也谈妥了. 如果收入表现不佳, studios are at a disadvantage—forcing them to accept less favorable agreement terms for subsequent release windows.

在未来，虚拟发布将减少这种猜测. Granular, up-to-the-second data will enable more informed decision-making 和 greater flexibility. 一部在虚拟首映周末表现不佳的电影可能会, 例如, trigger EST pricing strategy adjustments; low VOD revenues could be recouped with an accelerated AVOD release schedule or adjusted run times.

在剧场模式中，观众数据仅限于剧场所能提供的. Digital audience intelligence provides sophisticated insight into viewer engagement patterns. 这些数据可以, 而且应该, 利用目标广告支出和实时个性化促销信息. 随着电影公司越来越了解, consumer tastes will begin to influence content themes 和 release schedules to an extent never seen in the industry.

Consumer data is more accessible 和 distribution more flexible for studios that control digital platforms, 像迪斯尼+. 但随着虚拟发行成为好莱坞的主流, 多平台发布模式可能会出现. 任何工作室都应该明智地采取以下三个步骤:推动实时性, 将观看数据细化到他们的分销条款中(行为和人口统计), 数字化协议管理，优化分析, 和 equip decisionmakers with intelligent data 和 analytics tools to underst和和 act on the 信息 available.

重新思考利润等式

Deep consumer intelligence 和 accurate financial forecasting will enable studios to make smarter investments while maximizing their revenues in new ways.

虚拟版本可以吸引用户注册，因为 神奇女侠 证明了. Studios with the ability to predict audience dem和 for unreleased 和 future titles will gain an advantage; the more subscriptions (recurring revenue for most streaming platforms) a title can produce, 其在排他性许可谈判中的价值就越大. Predictive intelligence capabilities are crucial; the studios with the most accurate forecasts will establish their reputation as a reliable revenue source among VOD distributors 和 comm和 better revenue sharing terms.

对于那些在自己的流媒体平台上虚拟发布游戏的人来说, 数据驱动的预测将为电影融资提供更平衡的方法. 庞大的制作和宣传预算可能会推动收入, 但当门票销售达不到预期时，它们的利润就会下降. Studios can hedge that risk by predictively modeling dem和, then budgeting accordingly.

电影行业历来按类型划分内容, 与高级人口统计大致相关. 为数字观众提供的可靠行为数据改变了游戏规则. 电影公司可以预测哪些电影在虚拟和影院的表现最好. 在整个制作过程中融入观众的洞察力, 促销活动, 面对潜在的收入下降，分销能使利润最大化.

Both studios 和 streaming platforms that harness behavioral data will capture greater value per title 和 user. 有了足够的技术, an unprecedented number of factors can be correlated to revenue potential with unprecedented accuracy. A subscriber whose behavior signals high churn risk could be enticed to renew with a film release announcement – delivered at the time of day when they are most engaged, 以一个与故事情节相匹配的宣传预告片为特色, 字符, 甚至它们更喜欢的长度. 在规模, that data can be used by VOD providers to win subscribers 和 by studios to find the right audiences 和 distribution platforms for future releases.

The potential to creatively monetize data is unlimited,但 the time to seize it is not.

未来有利于数据驱动

At no point in the history of media 和 entertainment has a company survived by clinging to outdated distribution models. 当然, the upheaval of the COVID-19 p和emic has dealt a painful blow to the motion picture industry. 影院发行可能会反弹，但虚拟发行将永远存在.

数据智能是最可靠的发展方向. Studios that immediately begin deriving insight from the massive amount of data in the digital ecosystem can respond to—和 even find opportunity in—current 和 future disruption. 剩下的人只能猜测:我们到底在哪里做错了?

21^st 世纪票房将会持续下去. 能够适应它的工作室也是如此.

[编者注:这是来自交响乐MediaAI. 流媒体接受供应商署名完全基于它们对我们读者的价值.]

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